One Month To Go: YouGov Post Record High Yes Vote

It did not work when the original announcement that an independent Scotland would not be allowed to share the pound and form a monetary union with the rest of the UK was made. And it looks as though the No side’s return to the issue in and since the leaders’ debate has again failed to [...]

Panelbase Also Show Yes Vote Holding Firm

A third post-leaders’ debate poll of voting intentions in the referendum has appeared this morning. Undertaken by Panelbase for the Yes Scotland campaign, it casts further doubt on the proposition that the debate had an adverse impact on the Yes vote. The poll puts Yes on 42%, up one point on the company’s previous poll [...]

ICM Suggest No Leaders’ Debate Boost For Better Together

The latest regular monthly ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday is published today. It is only the second regular poll to have been conducted wholly since the leaders’ debate. And while the poll confirms that voters’  judgement is that Mr Darling won, it fails to confirm the message of the previous post-leaders’ debate poll from [...]

Poll of Polls: 15 August

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on one poll by Survation, one poll by YouGov,  one by TNS BMRB, one by Ipsos MORI, one by ICM and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 23 [...]

Survation Poll of Women

Rather than being a regular poll of all voters, this month’s poll by Survation for the Daily Record, published today, has been conducted exclusively amongst women.  So, although it was conducted between 8 and 12 August and is thus only the second poll to have been conducted wholly since last Tuesday’s leaders’ debate, it does [...]

TNS BMRB Confirms No-Post Games Boost for Yes

TNS BMRB’s monthly poll is published today. As ever its face to face polling is done over a longer fieldwork period than other polls. In this instance polling started the day the Commonwealth Games were opened on 23 July and ended on 7 August, two days after the leaders’ debate. It thus gives us a [...]

Who is still wavering? Turnout and the undecided

We use the Scottish Social Attitudes survey (SSA) 2014 to look here at likely turnout in the referendum, and also at who the undecideds are. The level of turnout looks likely to be high. The survey measured respondents’ likelihood of voting on a 10-point scale, with 10 meaning ‘very likely to vote’. Nearly three quarters [...]

First SSA 2014 Results: Support for Independence Up Yet Fewer Think It Would Be Beneficial

What should we make of the referendum campaign now that polling day is drawing near? That is the question being addressed today by a major ScotCen/What Scotland Thinks conference being held in Edinburgh today. To help us answer the question the event will see the unveiling of initial results from the 2014 Scottish Social Attitudes [...]

Minding the gap – women’s views of independence in 2014

As we enter the final weeks of the referendum campaign, persuading key groups of voters to back their case becomes ever more important to both the Yes Scotland and the Better Together campaign. Women are one such target group. In fact, some have suggested that women may ‘hold the key’  to the outcome of September’s vote. [...]

YouGov: Yes Vote Remains Steady But Low

There is a new poll from YouGov published in today’s Sun newspaper.  Curiously, perhaps, the fieldwork was conducted between 4 and 7 August, that is partly before the leaders’ debate on 5 August, and partly afterwards. Thus unlike Saturday’s poll by Survation, it does not provide us with a clear measure of whether support for [...]

Poll of Polls: 7 August Updated

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on one poll by Survation, one poll by YouGov,  one by TNS BMRB, one by Ipsos MORI, one by ICM and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 7 [...]

Survation Show Drop in Yes Support Following Leaders’ Debate

ICM’s instant poll of those who had watched the leaders’ debate on Tuesday was not exactly comfortable reading for the Yes side. But at least it held out the prospect that perhaps Mr Salmond’s seemingly disappointing performance would not cost it many votes. However that poll’s headline figure  – that Mr Darling was adjudged the [...]

Poll of Polls: 7 August

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation, one poll by TNS BMRB, one by Ipsos MORI, one by ICM and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 25 June and 7 [...]

Who won the Leaders’ Debate? ICM’s Instant Poll

Within half an hour of the conclusion of last night’s leaders’ debate, ICM produced for The Guardian an instant poll of the reactions of a supposedly representative sample of voters who watched the debate. Only just over 500 people (512 to be exact) were successfully contacted in the limited time available, and some demographic groups, [...]

Ipsos MORI Give Salmond Debate Fillip

A poll commissioned by STV from Ipsos MORI and released at the beginning of tonight’s leaders’ debate gives Alex Salmond a bit of a fillip as he prepares to debate with the Better Together leader, Alistair Darling. The poll puts Yes on 40% and No on 54%, with just 7% of those who say they [...]