Should Labour Be Worried?

One of the most remarkable features of the referendum result was that supposedly ‘Red’ Clydeside provided three of the four council areas where a majority of voters voted Yes. This has inevitably led some to question whether the link between Labour and its erstwhile ‘traditional’ working class base has been irretrievably broken. Will we find […]

So What Should Be Done About The Vow? Public Opinion and More Devolution

When the Edinburgh Agreement was signed in October 2012, the UK government declared that it would ensure that the independence referendum would be ‘legal, fair and decisive’. Although some supporters of the Yes camp may be doubtful that the referendum was entirely fair (pointing not least to what they perceive to be some biased media […]

So Who Voted Yes and Who Voted No?

One of the common features of political polling is that while a plethora appear in advance of an election or a referendum, nobody bothers to conduct a poll afterwards. For newspapers, the most common commissioners, polls are of interest beforehand because they provide a basis for speculating about what will happen when polling day does […]

So How Well Did The Polls Do?

Clearly the most important features of the referendum result are which side won and which lost, and how politicians react and respond to the outcome. But there is also another question to be asked of the result – how well did the polls do and which was closest to the result? Here is a table […]

The Last Lap: Ipsos MORI’s Final Poll

Ipsos MORI released the very final poll of the referendum this morning (conducted for the Evening Standard) as voters were already heading for the polls. Conducted over a two day period that ended 24 hours later than the company’s poll for STV that was published last night, it adopted the same methodological tweaks to estimating […]

More Polls: Still Close!

Yesterday evening saw the publication of what are almost the final polls of the campaign – there is one more from Ipsos MORI due to appear in today’s Evening Standard. Between them they affirmed the impression created by the polls released on Monday evening that the outcome of the referendum is on a knife-edge but […]

Poll of Polls: 17 September FINAL

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest and last Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation,  two by Ipsos MORI, one by YouGov and one by Panelbase, and one by ICM.  The polls were conducted between 12 and 17 […]

Poll of Polls: 17 September

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation,  one poll by YouGov, one by Panelbase, one by Ipsos MORI, and one poll by ICM.  The polls were conducted between 12 and 17 September. […]

A Remarkable Outbreak of Unity!

Three polls of voting intentions were released yesterday evening and appear in today’s papers. One was conducted by ICM for The Scotsman, one by Survation for the Daily Mail while the third was undertaken by Opinium for the Daily Telegraph. After undecided voters are left to one side, all three out Yes on 48% and […]

Poll of Polls: 16 September

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, two by Survation,  one by Panelbase  and one by Opinium,  The polls were conducted between 9 and 16 September. The following new polls have been […]

Is The ‘Yes’ Online Tsunami Finally Paying Dividends?

Since our last contribution to this site both the online and offline campaigns have been in full swing. Offline there has been door-to-door canvassing, leafleting, parades, bands, creative art projects, banners, posters, the sporting of lapel badges and T-shirts, countless interventions from industry figures, politicians, and celebrities, and two set piece televised debates between the two […]

How accurate will the Scottish independence referendum polls be?

This is an updated and modified version of a blog post that appeared at electionsetc.com on 11th September. The vote intention polls for the Scottish independence referendum seem to have been taken largely at face value by commentators, politicians and even the financial markets. In particular, the roughly equal split of the vote between Yes […]

New (Late) Boys On The Block Also Say It Is Close

The excitement generated by the narrowing of the No lead in the polls has unsurprisingly persuaded new media organisations to enter the polling fray. On Friday The Guardian commissioned its first poll of voting intentions in the referendum. Today its stablemate, The Observer, has done the same. That paper regularly publishes Westminster voting intention polls […]

Panelbase: Yes Edge Up Just A Little

Whereas last weekend the Sunday Times featured a poll from YouGov, for the final weekend of the campaign the paper has returned to its usual stablemate for referendum polling, Panelbase. The company’s latest poll puts Yes on 46%, No on 47%. That means Yes are up two points on Panelbase’s previous poll conducted a week […]

Poll of Polls: 12 September Version 2

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, one by Survation, one by YouGov, one by Panelbase  and one by Opinium,  The polls were conducted between 9 and 12 September. The following new […]