Scottish Labour’s Predicament

Scottish Labour are gathered this weekend in Perth in the hope of kick-starting a revival. The party certainly badly needs to do so. The hole in which it finds itself now is as every bit as deep as the one into which it fell in May when it was all but wiped out in the […]

Public Attitudes to Devolution in Wales – a Permissive Consensus?

The UK Government recently published a draft version of a new Wales Bill. This offers the prospect of more changes to the Welsh devolution settlement, to add to the many that have occurred since the National Assembly for Wales (NAW) was first established in 1999. But while the politicians debate matters, is there clear evidence […]

The SNP’s Dilemma

One of the key lessons of Scottish politics in the last 12 months is that referendums and parliamentary elections can present a political movement that is capable of garnering around half the vote with very different challenges. In a referendum that movement may well fail to win, as happened to Yes in September last year. […]

Scotland A Year On – A Divided Nation?

Today is the day to take stock of where Scotland stands exactly a year on from an independence referendum that the UK government at least hoped would be ‘decisive’. It hardly looks that way now. For Scotland appears to be divided straight down the middle on the constitutional question on which it voted exactly a […]

Survation Also Show Little Movement to Yes

As referendum first anniversary fever grows, today sees the publication of yet another poll on how Scots now view the constitutional question. Like the two polls published over the weekend, today’s poll, conducted by Survation for the Daily Mail, asked people how they actually voted in the referendum and the data have been weighted so […]

Weekend Polls Fail to Replicate Summer Surge for Independence

Regular readers will be aware that recent polls from Ipsos MORI and TNS BMRB have suggested that there has been an increase in support for independence during the course of the summer – and that contrary to all previous polling since March a majority would now vote Yes in a second referendum. However, neither of […]

Another Pre-Anniversary Poll, Another Yes Lead

Another poll released in anticipation of the first anniversary of the independence referendum, and another poll that suggests that the result would be different if the ballot were to be held now. Last week Ipsos MORI released a poll showing that once Don’t Knows are excluded, 55% now say they would now vote Yes to […]

How Popular is EVEL?

Last year’s independence referendum might have settled – for the time being at least – the question of whether Scotland should be an independent country. But it left a legacy of two further debates and controversies. The first, instigated by Gordon Brown’s ‘vow’ in the final days of the referendum campaign, was about how much […]

Ipsos MORI Suggest Scotland Would Now Vote Yes

Ipsos MORI have ensured that the new Scottish political season kicks off with a bang rather than a whimper, with the publication today of a poll for STV that says that 53% would now vote Yes in an independence referendum, while only 44% would vote No.  Once the small proportion who said, ‘Don’t Know’, are […]

What Scotland Thinks remastered

Over the next few weeks we will be re-aligning the much loved What Scotland Thinks website. Ever popular during the Scottish independence referendum, we’re developing the remit of the site to bring the content up to date and also include matters that concern the rest of the UK. Constitutional change debate Irrespective of anyone’s views […]

The Challenge Facing The New Scottish Labour Leader

Labour’s new Scottish leader is due to be unveiled on Saturday, an announcement that will in effect signal that the holiday season is coming to an end and normal political hostilities will soon begin once more. The announcement will, of course, be made against the backdrop of a divisive UK leadership contest in which the […]

Survation on the Opportunities and Challenges of 2016

Just when it looked as though we might be having a quiet, poll free summer before the next round of electoral politics begins in earnest, the Scottish Daily Mail has opted to run a poll from Survation. It covers how people might vote in the Holyrood election next year and in the EU referendum whenever […]

And So Our Eyes Turn To May 2016

There is little rest in the world of politics.  Today sees the publication of the first poll of voting intentions for next May’s Holyrood election since the UK general election on May 7th.  During the UK election such readings were largely ignored, but now that that ballot is behind us, the battle for power at […]

How Accurate were the General Election Polls in Scotland?

The unanticipated success of the Conservatives in winning a narrow overall majority in the UK general election has raised questions about the performance of the polls, and the British Polling Council (BPC) has announced that an independent inquiry will be conducted into what happened.  On average the GB-wide polls pointed to a dead heat between […]

Final Polls Still Show SNP Well Ahead

The final two polls of voting intentions in Scotland for the general election were released late last night. The first was by Survation for the Daily Record, the second by YouGov for The Times and The Sun. The YouGov poll was in fact a boosted Scottish sub-sample of a much larger Britain-wide poll, but as […]