So How Many 16 and 17 Year Olds Voted?

The Electoral Commission has released its report on the conduct of the Scottish independence referendum today. For the most part the exercise gets top marks. Voters not only turned out in unprecedented numbers, but were also largely satisfied with the arrangements for voting. Underpinning the report is a relatively large post-referendum survey in which 1,852 […]

New Leader, Old Troubles: Labour in Scotland

The Murdoch press empire decided to rain on the Scottish Labour leadership parade on Saturday by releasing a YouGov poll in The Sun and The Times showing the party is 20 points behind the SNP in voting intentions for next Westminster’s election – an outcome that could see it lose the vast bulk of its […]

Survation Add To Labour’s Woes

Findings from the first post-referendum poll to be conducted by Survation for the Daily Record have been released during the course of the last couple of days. There are two key findings. First, the poll confirms that there has been a major shift of Westminster voting intentions from Labour to the SNP since the referendum. […]

Panelbase on Labour and Independence

A new poll from Panelbase has now been released by the Wings over Scotland website, which broke new ground during the referendum campaign by crowdsource funding three polls. Conducted during the week ending on Wednesday, the site’s latest poll provides further insight into the state of the race for next year’s Westminster election and on […]

Evidence and Confusion: More on Recent Scottish Polling

A further tranche of results from YouGov’s poll for The Times was released on Saturday, while additional findings from Ipsos MORI’s poll for STV are also now available. Between them they contain a few points that are worth noting – on independence, more devolution, further referendums and the party battle. Independence Saturday’s Times greeted us […]

YouGov Confirm SNP Well Ahead

A bit like buses, after a dearth of polling for a few weeks, not just one, but two Scottish polls were released yesterday. Following on from Ipsos MORI’s poll for STV released yesterday lunchtime, last night a YouGov poll for The Times was published. Although its results are not as dramatic as those of Ipsos […]

Ipsos MORI Give SNP Record Westminster Poll Rating

Ever since 18 September, Labour have been fretting about the impact the referendum campaign may have had on their prospects north of the border in next May’s Westminster election. Although the party was on the winning side in the referendum, the Yes vote was relatively high in the less affluent and thus more Labour parts […]

The Referendum Legacy

Today TNS BMRB have published their first poll of voters in Scotland since the referendum. As well as giving us an insight into the relative popularity of the ways in which people actually got involved in the referendum campaign, it also provides some evidence on whether the referendum has left a legacy of potentially higher […]

English Votes on English Laws: the English constitutional preference?

Yesterday, the House of Commons finally had its big devolution debate, discussing both the commitment to further Scottish devolution set in train by the Scottish No vote and the ‘English Question’. David Cameron of course had linked the two together when he spoke to acknowledge the victory of the No side at breakfast time on […]

What Does England Want?

The Commons gets its first chance this week to consider the fallout from the Scottish referendum, including a full day’s debate today. Although some of the discussion will be about the hopes and aspirations north of the border for more devolution, there will doubtless be debate too about what changes to the governance of England […]

Panelbase for the SNP: More on More Devolution and on Labour’s Prospects

The results of a poll conducted by Panelbase for the SNP have gradually been released during the last few days. There are two principal findings of interest. First, it provides further evidence on people’s attitudes towards more devolution. Second, it provides further evidence on the standings of the parties in the Westminster and Holyrood elections […]

Should Labour Be Worried?

One of the most remarkable features of the referendum result was that supposedly ‘Red’ Clydeside provided three of the four council areas where a majority of voters voted Yes. This has inevitably led some to question whether the link between Labour and its erstwhile ‘traditional’ working class base has been irretrievably broken. Will we find […]

So What Should Be Done About The Vow? Public Opinion and More Devolution

When the Edinburgh Agreement was signed in October 2012, the UK government declared that it would ensure that the independence referendum would be ‘legal, fair and decisive’. Although some supporters of the Yes camp may be doubtful that the referendum was entirely fair (pointing not least to what they perceive to be some biased media […]

So Who Voted Yes and Who Voted No?

One of the common features of political polling is that while a plethora appear in advance of an election or a referendum, nobody bothers to conduct a poll afterwards. For newspapers, the most common commissioners, polls are of interest beforehand because they provide a basis for speculating about what will happen when polling day does […]

So How Well Did The Polls Do?

Clearly the most important features of the referendum result are which side won and which lost, and how politicians react and respond to the outcome. But there is also another question to be asked of the result – how well did the polls do and which was closest to the result? Here is a table […]