YouGov Report Dramatic Swing to Yes

For the most of the referendum campaign, the picture painted by the polls has been one of relative stability.  The results produced by a company in one month have often been much the same as those it had reported the previous month – and were often much the same as those that eventually appeared the [...]

Poll of Polls: 1 September

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation, two by YouGov,  one by ICM and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 6 August and 1 September.

Could the ‘Missing Million’ Swing It to Yes?

Faced with opinion polls that continue unrelentingly to put the No side ahead, albeit by differing margins, the Yes side appears to be putting its faith in the so-called ‘missing million’. The term is used somewhat loosely; sometimes it refers to those who are eligible to vote but are not on the electoral register and [...]

Yes Bounce Back in Survation Post BBC Debate Poll

Initially, the first regular poll to be conduced since the second leaders’ debate – by Survation for today’s Daily Mail – looks like very good news for the Yes side. But in truth its real message is that collectively at least the two leaders’ debates have apparently failed to change the balance of support for [...]

Poll of Polls: 28 August

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation, two by YouGov,  one by ICM and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 4 and 28 August.

Is education policy driving Scotland and England apart?

There is an assumption in public debate that – regardless of the outcome of the referendum – devolution has already caused Scotland and England to drift apart, and especially in education policy. The best-known of all the policy divergence is on student fees. In university classes now in Scotland there are students paying nothing and [...]

Salmond Wins Round Two

An instant poll of 505 people who watched the second and last leaders’ debate between Mr Salmond and Mr Darling last night suggests that, in contrast to the first debate three weeks ago, Mr Salmond was widely regarded as the winner of the joust. However, the poll, conducted by ICM and commissioned by The Guardian, [...]

Why bigger isn’t always better

Political campaigners can often be heard complaining that opinion polls do not reflect what they are hearing ‘on the doorstep’. Arguing that they have spoken to many more people than the 1,000 or so typically interviewed for a poll, they claim the polls must be biased or just plain wrong. In Scotland, the Radical Independence [...]

One Month To Go: YouGov Post Record High Yes Vote

It did not work when the original announcement that an independent Scotland would not be allowed to share the pound and form a monetary union with the rest of the UK was made. And it looks as though the No side’s return to the issue in and since the leaders’ debate has again failed to [...]

Panelbase Also Show Yes Vote Holding Firm

A third post-leaders’ debate poll of voting intentions in the referendum has appeared this morning. Undertaken by Panelbase for the Yes Scotland campaign, it casts further doubt on the proposition that the debate had an adverse impact on the Yes vote. The poll puts Yes on 42%, up one point on the company’s previous poll [...]

ICM Suggest No Leaders’ Debate Boost For Better Together

The latest regular monthly ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday is published today. It is only the second regular poll to have been conducted wholly since the leaders’ debate. And while the poll confirms that voters’  judgement is that Mr Darling won, it fails to confirm the message of the previous post-leaders’ debate poll from [...]

Poll of Polls: 15 August

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on one poll by Survation, one poll by YouGov,  one by TNS BMRB, one by Ipsos MORI, one by ICM and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 23 [...]

Survation Poll of Women

Rather than being a regular poll of all voters, this month’s poll by Survation for the Daily Record, published today, has been conducted exclusively amongst women.  So, although it was conducted between 8 and 12 August and is thus only the second poll to have been conducted wholly since last Tuesday’s leaders’ debate, it does [...]

TNS BMRB Confirms No-Post Games Boost for Yes

TNS BMRB’s monthly poll is published today. As ever its face to face polling is done over a longer fieldwork period than other polls. In this instance polling started the day the Commonwealth Games were opened on 23 July and ended on 7 August, two days after the leaders’ debate. It thus gives us a [...]

Who is still wavering? Turnout and the undecided

We use the Scottish Social Attitudes survey (SSA) 2014 to look here at likely turnout in the referendum, and also at who the undecideds are. The level of turnout looks likely to be high. The survey measured respondents’ likelihood of voting on a 10-point scale, with 10 meaning ‘very likely to vote’. Nearly three quarters [...]