Panelbase Still Put No Ahead

The opinion polls may of course all be wrong.  But if Scotland is to vote in favour of independence on 18 September then one would expect at least a few polls to put Yes ahead at some point before polling day.  And no poll would seem more likely to record a Yes lead than Panelbase, [...]

Poll of Polls: 22 July

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by TNS BMRB, one poll  by YouGov, one by Survation, one by ICM and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 10 June and 22 July.

TNS BMRB Report Their Highest Yes Vote Yet

Of all the companies polling regularly during the campaign, none has hitherto been more stable in its estimates of referendum vote intentions than TNS BMRB. Up to now, six of the seven polls it had conducted to date this year had put Yes on 41% (and No on 59%) once the Don’t Knows were excluded, [...]

Poll of Polls: 11 July Updated

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls  by YouGov, two by TNS BMRB, one poll by Survation, and one by ICM,  The polls were conducted between 10 June and 11 July. It is an [...]

Who is Right? YouGov or Survation?

Regular readers of this blog will be well aware that the polls have been consistently disagreeing with each other in their estimates of how many people propose to vote Yes and No. Three companies, ICM, Panelbase and Survation have tended to produce higher estimates of the Yes vote (and thus lower estimates of the No [...]

ICM: Views on the Issues are Proving Difficult to Shift

A distinguishing feature of the polls that ICM conduct for Scotland on Sunday is that they repeatedly ask many of the same questions each month. As a result, apart from academic exercises such as the British Election Study, they provide us with a unique insight into how much difference the referendum campaign is making to [...]

Poll of Polls: 11 July

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM,  two by YouGov, one poll by Survation, and one by TNS BMRB,  The polls were conducted between 9 June and 11 July.

Survation Repeats Its Record High For Yes

Sometimes there genuinely is more than one way to look at the result of an opinion poll. Apply one criterion and it can look good for one side.  Judge it by another criterion and a different picture is painted. Today’s poll of referendum vote intentions by Survation for the Daily Record is a case in [...]

Poll of Polls: 8 July

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by YouGov,  one poll by Survation, one poll by TNS BMRB, one poll by ICM, and one by Panelbase, . The polls were conducted between 9 June [...]

TNS BMRB Portray a Referendum Campaign Becalmed

Today sees the publication of a second poll to be conducted by TNS BMRB for Sir Tom Hunter’s scotlandseptember18.com website, the stated aim of which is to improve the quality of the referendum debate. Much of the poll is thus about people’s perceptions of the quality of that debate and whether they feel adequately informed [...]

A Critical Look at Scotland’s Referendum: Special Issue of Scottish Affairs

The journal Scottish Affairs was first launched not long after the Conservatives had won their fourth consecutive UK general election in 1992. The opening lines of Scottish Affairs, number 1 were delivered by the journal’s editor, Lindsay Paterson: The day after the general election last April, a new bit of graffiti appeared on a wall [...]

A Step Backwards for Yes? Latest YouGov Poll

It has long been apparent that YouGov are amongst the companies that tend to paint a relatively pessimistic picture of the Yes side’s prospects. But even by the standards of its previous polls, the company’s latest poll, conducted for The Times, must be regarded as a considerable disappointment for those working in the Yes side’s [...]

Poll of Polls: 29 June

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by YouGov, one poll by ICM, one poll by Ipsos MORI, one poll by Survation, and one by Panelbase, . The polls were conducted between 26 May [...]

Attitudes to Gaelic and to Scottish Autonomy

The status of national languages has been a source of controversy in many movements seeking autonomy for a small nation, such as, for example, those in Ireland and Wales. Yet Scotland seems to be an exception. Support for the Gaelic language has never been closely linked with campaigning  for Scottish political autonomy. But does that [...]