Has Brexit Changed Voters’ Minds About Indyref2?

The outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU has, as the First Minister has remarked, put the question of Scottish independence back ‘on the table’. Nicola Sturgeon long ago signalled that a UK-wide vote to leave the EU combined with a vote in Scotland to remain would likely be regarded as […]

Could Brexit Lead to IndyRef2?

With the opinion polls consistently showing that Scotland is set to vote to Remain in the European Union on June 23rd (the latest estimate from TNS released last week suggested that, after excluding Don’t Knows, as many as 71% might do so), there seems to be more interest north of the border in discussing what […]

So Just How United Are SNP Supporters on Europe?

One of the most striking features of polls of voting intentions in the European Union referendum is that people in Scotland are much more likely to say they will vote to Remain than are their counterparts in England & Wales. Whereas polls across Britain as a whole suggest the referendum race is tight, in Scotland […]

The Final Poll (apart from the one that really matters!)

Today’s Times carries the final opinion poll of the Scottish Parliament election campaign, conducted by YouGov between Monday and yesterday. This is the only poll of the campaign that would usually be regarded as a ‘final poll’, that is one that has been conducted sufficiently closely to polling day that its accuracy can reasonably be […]

Survation Change Methodology – But Still Find the Battle for Second is Tight

The latest poll of voting intentions for Thursday’s election, conducted by Survation for the Daily Record, is of particular interest for two reasons. First, in contrast to Survation’s previous polls it was conducted by phone rather than via the internet. Second, the wording of the question used to ascertain voting intentions on the list vote […]

Labour Profits from Polarisation?

A poll by Panelbase in today’s Sunday Times Scotland provides Labour with some relatively encouraging news in its attempt to stay ahead of the Conservatives at Holyrood. At 23% on the constituency vote and 22% on the list, the party is estimated to be six and three points ahead of the Conservatives respectively. Such an […]

SNP Slip but it is Labour who still have Reason to Worry

With the SNP apparently a long way ahead in the polls, much of the commentary about the Scottish election, including that provided by this blog has focused on whether Labour will or will not prove capable of retaining second place. Two polls released this week have done nothing to dispel that preoccupation. Not that the […]

Labour Still Struggling To Secure Second Place

With little more than a week and a half to go to the Scottish Parliament election (albeit with Labour remarkably still to unveil its manifesto) it seems there is nothing that can stand in the way of a second SNP overall majority. However, the battle for second place is evidently not resolved, as indeed is […]

Why is Labour’s Election Strategy Not Working?

Labour’s strategy in the Scottish Parliament election is clear. It is trying to win back those for the most part relatively left-wing former supporters who voted for independence eighteen months ago and subsequently switched to the SNP. To that end it has put forward plans for markedly higher taxation and spending than those being espoused […]

Pollster, pollster, in your crystal ball, who’s the best opposition leader of all?

Last week a poll from Survation suggested that the huff and puff of the campaign, including not least two televised leader debates that took place either side of the Easter weekend, had not made much difference to the balance of voting intentions for next month’s Scottish Parliament election. However, much of the interviewing for that […]

More Excitement than Movement? On the Impact of the Campaign So Far.

Labour have not had the easiest of times in the Scottish Parliament election campaign to date. It seemingly changed its mind on whether those on lower incomes should be compensated for its proposed 1p increase in the basic rate of income tax. Then an interview with its leader, Kezia Dugdale, was published in which she […]

Will The Tax Debate Move Voters?

One of the rituals of elections in Scotland nowadays is that at the beginning of the campaign BBC Scotland conducts a poll in which it attempts to establish the popularity or otherwise of the various proposals being put forward by the parties. The results of the exercise conducted (by Ipsos MORI) for this year’s Holyrood […]

What Difference did the Referendum make to Scotland’s Constitutional Debate?

Today MSPs pack their bags and prepare to campaign (or retire). Tomorrow will mark the day that if a majority had voted Yes in the independence referendum, Scotland would, according to the SNP’s proposed timetable, have become an independent country. It is thus an opportune moment to take a look at the state of Scotland’s […]

Have Scots Tories Set Their Sights Too High?

Scottish Tories, who gather together this Friday in Edinburgh have probably not come together in such an optimistic mood for a long time. In recent weeks they have felt able to aim high, suggesting they could overtake Labour in May’s Scottish Parliament election (something the party has not managed to do north of the border […]

Survation on Income Tax, UKIP and IndyRef2

A new poll by Survation that was reported in the Daily Record both yesterday and today has three findings of note. First, although the principle of increasing income tax by a penny in the pound (as proposed by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats) appears to be relatively popular, there is little sign so far […]