New Filter to Help You Interpret the Referendum Polls

It will come as no surprise to regular users of this site to hear that the most visited page is the referendum voting intention time series. This graph presents the results from all polls that have asked the question that will appear on this September’s ballot paper: ‘Should Scotland be an independent country?’ One strength [...]

Why women may hold the key to September 18th

Tonight BBC2 Scotland airs a referendum documentary ‘What Women Want’ that looks at the gender gap in attitudes to independence. Rachel Ormston, who appears in the programme, looks as the current state of the gap – and why it exists. The gap between men and women in their level of support for independence is well [...]

Easter Polls Offer Further Hope For Yes

The headline results of the two polls published today, one by ICM Research for Scotland on Sunday and one by Survation for the Sunday Post, will doubtless be regarded as encouraging for the Yes side. Some of the details too will do little to dispel the impression that the No campaign is a campaign in [...]

Poll by TNS BMRB Sheds Some Light on ‘The Undecideds’

The poll from TNS BMRB released today has been widely reported as further evidence that the No lead is narrowing. In truth, it would appear to be further evidence that the No lead has stabilized around the narrower level it has now been at for some weeks. First, though, a note about the timing of [...]

More Stability from Panelbase, now for Yes Scotland

In commissioning and publishing the poll from Panelbase that it released this morning (which showed Yes 40%, No 45%, Don’t Know 15%), the Yes Scotland campaign was doubtless hoping to persuade us that it is on the edge of victory in September.  Its press release highlighted the fact that, at 47% (once the Don’t Knows [...]

Has The Yes Side’s Progress Stalled?

The first installment of the latest monthly poll to be conducted by Survation for the Daily Record is published today. It gives the Yes side reason to pause for thought, while the No side’s recent apparent nervousness should be steadied a little. The poll puts Yes on 37%, down two points on a month ago, [...]

Panelbase Wings Poll Shows Narrow But Unchanged No Lead

Panelbase, the nationalists’ favourite pollster, have a new poll of voting intentions out this morning. It has been commissioned by the pro-independence web site, Wings over Scotland, the third such poll  the site has funded via contributions from its readers. The poll puts the Yes vote on 41%, No on 46%. Both votes are up [...]

YouGov Reports Its Highest Yes Vote Yet

YouGov have so far been amongst the more conservative of the pollsters so far as its estimate of the Yes vote is concerned. Since September, most of its polls have put the Yes vote at between 38 and 40 per cent (once Don’t Knows were excluded). Its estimate of the degree to which the No [...]

TNS BMRB Poll Suggests Yes Still Have Plenty To Do

TNS BMRB’s latest monthly poll is published this morning. It is in fact relatively old. Interviewing began almost a month ago, and finished as long ago as the 9th of this month. However, that does not mean it should be ignored. The poll puts Yes on 28%, No on 42%. That represents a one point [...]

March ICM Poll Uncovers Worrying Underlying Trends for No

The latest monthly ICM poll for Scotland on Sunday, published today, will do little to smooth the worried brows in the No camp. Once again the message appears to be that the referendum race has become, from their perspective at least, all too close for comfort. The poll puts Yes on 39%, No on 46%. [...]

Panelbase Now Also Show Yes Vote Up

One of the curious features of the polling conducted since the publication of the independence White Paper last November, is that the one and only company not to register any subsequent increase in Yes support has been Panelbase, whose results had hitherto consistently been the most favourable to the Yes side.  Of course, given that [...]

Seminar in April: Who Will Turn Up – and Who Will Stay At Home?

This seminar is the latest in an occasional series of ScotCen/Institute of Governance morning briefings on public attitudes towards Scotland’s constitutional future. Each briefing focuses on public attitudes towards one of the key aspects of the referendum debate, bringing together the evidence of the Scottish Social Attitudes surveys and of commercial opinion polls. They are [...]

New Feature for Combining Response Options

The eagle eyed among you may have noticed a new feature appear recently on If you go to any page with a graph or table and scroll down a little, there is now a button called ‘Edit Responses’. Click on this and you will see that it allows you to combine the response categories [...]

Survation Poll Suggests Currency Row Still Having Little Impact

The Scottish party political conference season kicks off this weekend, and that together with the fact that it will be ‘six months to go’ until polling day next Wednesday means there is likely to be another intense round of media speculation and commentary on the state of the referendum race in the next few days. [...]

Is the Rest of the UK Becoming More Concerned about Scottish Independence?

As the referendum debate has warmed up, so the rest of the UK (or at least its media) has begun to take more notice. Consequently, in recent weeks more than one poll has asked people south of the border what they think about some of the issues at stake. Here we share a few observations [...]