YouGov Mark St Andrew’s Day with Poll on Independence (and more)

Today is, of course, St Andrew’s Day and the deadline for responses to the SNP’s ‘National Survey’ on how Scotland should be governed. To mark the occasion, The Times commissioned a poll from YouGov on attitudes towards Brexit and indyef2 together with Holyrood vote intentions. Nicola Sturgeon must be wishing that it had not bothered. […]

Our Future Focus: Brexit, Indyref2 and All That

Long-term users of this site will be aware that it was originally created in advance of the referendum on Scottish independence that was held in September 2014. Funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) as part of its initiative on The Future of the UK and Scotland, the site was part of that […]

Why did Scotland vote to Remain?

The outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union was, of course, very different in Scotland than in England and Wales. North of the border 62% voted to Remain while 38% backed Leave. In the rest of Great Britain, in contrast, only 47% voted to Remain, while 53% supported Leave. So […]

The SNP: Not so much a party, more of a movement?

Once upon a time the early autumn of the average London-based political journalist consisted of three weeks spent at three UK party conferences and then a return to their regular beat at Westminster. The SNP’s gathering during the ‘October break’ could be left to their colleagues in Edinburgh and Glasgow to cover. After all, little […]

How Brexit Has – and Has Not – Made A Difference

The Sunday Times and Heart FM have marked the second anniversary today of the independence referendum with a new poll from Panelbase. Like last week’s polls from TNS and Ipsos MORI the headline finding is that the UK-wide vote in favour of Brexit has made little difference to the balance of opinion on independence. Nevertheless, […]

Brexit Bounce Still Appears Elusive

Further evidence has emerged this week that the UK-wide decision to leave the EU has not significantly altered the balance of opinion on attitudes towards independence after all. Two polls, from Ipsos MORI (for STV News), the other from TNS (not for any particular client) both suggest that there is still a small majority in […]

Has Brexit Not Cleared The Path To Indyef2 After All?

Summer is coming to an end. The streets of Edinburgh are about to be populated by politicians and their acolytes rather than festival goers. Next week the SNP announce their legislative programme for the coming year. And today the nationalists are finally getting around to launching their long-promised ‘summer offensive’ on independence. In the meantime, […]

Has Brexit Changed Voters’ Minds About Indyref2?

The outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU has, as the First Minister has remarked, put the question of Scottish independence back ‘on the table’. Nicola Sturgeon long ago signalled that a UK-wide vote to leave the EU combined with a vote in Scotland to remain would likely be regarded as […]

Could Brexit Lead to IndyRef2?

With the opinion polls consistently showing that Scotland is set to vote to Remain in the European Union on June 23rd (the latest estimate from TNS released last week suggested that, after excluding Don’t Knows, as many as 71% might do so), there seems to be more interest north of the border in discussing what […]

So Just How United Are SNP Supporters on Europe?

One of the most striking features of polls of voting intentions in the European Union referendum is that people in Scotland are much more likely to say they will vote to Remain than are their counterparts in England & Wales. Whereas polls across Britain as a whole suggest the referendum race is tight, in Scotland […]

The Final Poll (apart from the one that really matters!)

Today’s Times carries the final opinion poll of the Scottish Parliament election campaign, conducted by YouGov between Monday and yesterday. This is the only poll of the campaign that would usually be regarded as a ‘final poll’, that is one that has been conducted sufficiently closely to polling day that its accuracy can reasonably be […]

Survation Change Methodology – But Still Find the Battle for Second is Tight

The latest poll of voting intentions for Thursday’s election, conducted by Survation for the Daily Record, is of particular interest for two reasons. First, in contrast to Survation’s previous polls it was conducted by phone rather than via the internet. Second, the wording of the question used to ascertain voting intentions on the list vote […]

Labour Profits from Polarisation?

A poll by Panelbase in today’s Sunday Times Scotland provides Labour with some relatively encouraging news in its attempt to stay ahead of the Conservatives at Holyrood. At 23% on the constituency vote and 22% on the list, the party is estimated to be six and three points ahead of the Conservatives respectively. Such an […]

SNP Slip but it is Labour who still have Reason to Worry

With the SNP apparently a long way ahead in the polls, much of the commentary about the Scottish election, including that provided by this blog has focused on whether Labour will or will not prove capable of retaining second place. Two polls released this week have done nothing to dispel that preoccupation. Not that the […]

Labour Still Struggling To Secure Second Place

With little more than a week and a half to go to the Scottish Parliament election (albeit with Labour remarkably still to unveil its manifesto) it seems there is nothing that can stand in the way of a second SNP overall majority. However, the battle for second place is evidently not resolved, as indeed is […]