More Polls: Still Close!

Yesterday evening saw the publication of what are almost the final polls of the campaign – there is one more from Ipsos MORI due to appear in today’s Evening Standard. Between them they affirmed the impression created by the polls released on Monday evening that the outcome of the referendum is on a knife-edge but […]

Poll of Polls: 17 September FINAL

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest and last Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation,  two by Ipsos MORI, one by YouGov and one by Panelbase, and one by ICM.  The polls were conducted between 12 and 17 […]

Poll of Polls: 17 September

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation,  one poll by YouGov, one by Panelbase, one by Ipsos MORI, and one poll by ICM.  The polls were conducted between 12 and 17 September. […]

A Remarkable Outbreak of Unity!

Three polls of voting intentions were released yesterday evening and appear in today’s papers. One was conducted by ICM for The Scotsman, one by Survation for the Daily Mail while the third was undertaken by Opinium for the Daily Telegraph. After undecided voters are left to one side, all three out Yes on 48% and […]

Poll of Polls: 16 September

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, two by Survation,  one by Panelbase  and one by Opinium,  The polls were conducted between 9 and 16 September. The following new polls have been […]

Is The ‘Yes’ Online Tsunami Finally Paying Dividends?

Since our last contribution to this site both the online and offline campaigns have been in full swing. Offline there has been door-to-door canvassing, leafleting, parades, bands, creative art projects, banners, posters, the sporting of lapel badges and T-shirts, countless interventions from industry figures, politicians, and celebrities, and two set piece televised debates between the two […]

How accurate will the Scottish independence referendum polls be?

This is an updated and modified version of a blog post that appeared at electionsetc.com on 11th September. The vote intention polls for the Scottish independence referendum seem to have been taken largely at face value by commentators, politicians and even the financial markets. In particular, the roughly equal split of the vote between Yes […]

New (Late) Boys On The Block Also Say It Is Close

The excitement generated by the narrowing of the No lead in the polls has unsurprisingly persuaded new media organisations to enter the polling fray. On Friday The Guardian commissioned its first poll of voting intentions in the referendum. Today its stablemate, The Observer, has done the same. That paper regularly publishes Westminster voting intention polls […]

Panelbase: Yes Edge Up Just A Little

Whereas last weekend the Sunday Times featured a poll from YouGov, for the final weekend of the campaign the paper has returned to its usual stablemate for referendum polling, Panelbase. The company’s latest poll puts Yes on 46%, No on 47%. That means Yes are up two points on Panelbase’s previous poll conducted a week […]

Poll of Polls: 12 September Version 2

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, one by Survation, one by YouGov, one by Panelbase  and one by Opinium,  The polls were conducted between 9 and 12 September. The following new […]

Poll of Polls: 12 September Version 1

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, two by Survation, one by YouGov  and one by Opinium,  The polls were conducted between 5 and 12 September. The following new polls have been […]

ICM Put Yes Ahead – Perhaps

ICM returns today to using the internet for its polling, this time for the Sunday Telegraph. Much of the interviewing for this latest poll in fact happened on the same days as that for the company’s poll in Saturday’s Guardian. However, this poll is a smaller exercise than those the company has been undertaking regularly […]

Survation Phone Poll Gets Much The Same Result Too

Survation have this afternoon released the result of a poll it has conducted for the Better Together campaign. Just as yesterday ICM released the results of a poll that had been conducted by phone rather than, as the company had done previously, over the internet, so also today’s poll is a phone poll from a […]

Tracking the Polls: Rapid Movement to Yes, but is it Enough?

Since the YouGov/Sunday Times poll last Sunday, September 7th, reported a narrow Yes lead and prompted the current crisis reaction from both political parties and news organisations, the polls have been very consistent. They have ranged from the Survation poll on September 9th at 47% for Yes to the ICM poll on September 11th at […]

ICM Agree The Race Is Now Close

Earlier today, the Guardian released the findings of a poll conducted for it by ICM. Unlike the polls that ICM have been conducting for Scotland on Sunday and The Scotsman, this poll was conducted over the telephone (using random digit dialing) rather than via an online panel. Not least of the reasons for this approach […]