So What Can Happen in 16 Weeks?

As doubtless most readers will be aware, tomorrow marks the official start of the campaign for the independence referendum – that is the period during which the amount of money that the two official campaigns, Yes Scotland and Better Together, along with the political parties and anybody else who wants to spend more than £10,000 […]

Implications of the Euro Result in Scotland

The declaration of the result of the European Parliament election in Scotland is of interest for two reasons so far as the referendum campaign is concerned. First, inevitably the parties and campaigns will try to impose their own interpretation of what has happened and why it matters for the referendum debate. Second, the declaration gives […]

How Will Scotland Vote in the Euro-elections?

For the next few days at least, the eyes of the Scottish political world will be diverted from the referendum campaign towards the prospects and performances of the parties in the elections to the European Parliament.  Mind you, the referendum will not be off the boil for long; interpretations of what the results mean for […]

Poll of Polls 15 May

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on one poll by ICM, one by Panelbase, one by Survation, one by Progressive Scottish Opinion, one by TNS BMRB and one by YouGov. The polls were conducted between 23 […]

Poll of Polls: 12 May

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by Survation, one by ICM, one by YouGov, one by TNS BMRB and one by Progressive Scottish Opinion. The polls were conducted between 13 April and 12 […]

Survation Shows Stability Too

There is further evidence today from Survation (for the Daily Record) that after the gains made by Yes during the winter, the referendum race has once again become something of a stalemate. The poll puts Yes on 37%, No on 47%, with 17% saying Don’t Know. The Yes and No tallies are identical to those […]

TNS BMRB Continue To Show An Unchanging Picture

The latest monthly poll fromTNS BMRB, published today, adds to the impression that, while far from being reversed, the progress made by the Yes side during the winter has not continued apace in the spring.  At the same time, however, the poll contains some food for thought for the No side about how voters perceive […]

Progressive: Big Swing to Yes but Yes Still Far Behind!

Until now, Progressive Scottish Opinion had conducted only a couple of polls of voting intentions in the referendum – one last September, on the occasion of a year to go to polling day, and one at the very end of November, immediately after the publication of the Scottish Government’s White Paper.  Even so, those two […]

Poll of Polls: 8 May

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on one poll by Survation, one by Panelbase, one by ICM, one by YouGov, one by TNS BMRB and one by Progressive Scottish Opinion. The polls were conducted between 4 […]

Poll of Polls: 28 April

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls conducted by Panelbase, two by Survation, one by ICM and one by YouGov. The polls were conducted between 28 March and 28 April.

Introduction to the What Scotland Thinks ‘Poll of Polls’

One of the suggestions that a number of users of this site have made is that we should supply a poll of polls of referendum vote intention. Our blogs often contain a reference to the average vote share for Yes and No in recent polls, but until now we have eschewed running such a statistic […]

YouGov Poll Suggests An April of Little Change

Hitherto most of the polls conducted wholly or partly in April had been conducted by pollsters whose estimate of the Yes share of the vote has typically been towards the higher end of the various estimates. So it was particularly interesting that, thanks to Channel 4 News, last night saw the first release for quite […]