Polls Swing High, Polls Swing Low

One indication of the dominance of the SNP in the Scottish political firmament these days is that, in what currently is otherwise a climate of relatively infrequent political polling north of the border, no less than four polls have been published during the run-up to the nationalists’ spring conference in Aberdeen this weekend. Two of […]

The Legacy of IndyRef1 and the Implications for IndyRef2: New Scottish Social Attitudes Report

The focus of much opinion polling is on the short-term. Has support for this party or that party gone up or down since last month? Which leader’s popularity is increasing, whose is on the wane? Is there any evidence of swing towards or away from independence since the last time the question was asked? As […]

YouGov Mark St Andrew’s Day with Poll on Independence (and more)

Today is, of course, St Andrew’s Day and the deadline for responses to the SNP’s ‘National Survey’ on how Scotland should be governed. To mark the occasion, The Times commissioned a poll from YouGov on attitudes towards Brexit and indyef2 together with Holyrood vote intentions. Nicola Sturgeon must be wishing that it had not bothered. […]

Why did Scotland vote to Remain?

The outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union was, of course, very different in Scotland than in England and Wales. North of the border 62% voted to Remain while 38% backed Leave. In the rest of Great Britain, in contrast, only 47% voted to Remain, while 53% supported Leave. So […]

Has Brexit Changed Voters’ Minds About Indyref2?

The outcome of the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU has, as the First Minister has remarked, put the question of Scottish independence back ‘on the table’. Nicola Sturgeon long ago signalled that a UK-wide vote to leave the EU combined with a vote in Scotland to remain would likely be regarded as […]

Could Brexit Lead to IndyRef2?

With the opinion polls consistently showing that Scotland is set to vote to Remain in the European Union on June 23rd (the latest estimate from TNS released last week suggested that, after excluding Don’t Knows, as many as 71% might do so), there seems to be more interest north of the border in discussing what […]

So Just How United Are SNP Supporters on Europe?

One of the most striking features of polls of voting intentions in the European Union referendum is that people in Scotland are much more likely to say they will vote to Remain than are their counterparts in England & Wales. Whereas polls across Britain as a whole suggest the referendum race is tight, in Scotland […]

What Difference did the Referendum make to Scotland’s Constitutional Debate?

Today MSPs pack their bags and prepare to campaign (or retire). Tomorrow will mark the day that if a majority had voted Yes in the independence referendum, Scotland would, according to the SNP’s proposed timetable, have become an independent country. It is thus an opportune moment to take a look at the state of Scotland’s […]

Survation on Income Tax, UKIP and IndyRef2

A new poll by Survation that was reported in the Daily Record both yesterday and today has three findings of note. First, although the principle of increasing income tax by a penny in the pound (as proposed by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats) appears to be relatively popular, there is little sign so far […]