How accurate will the Scottish independence referendum polls be?

This is an updated and modified version of a blog post that appeared at electionsetc.com on 11th September. The vote intention polls for the Scottish independence referendum seem to have been taken largely at face value by commentators, politicians and even the financial markets. In particular, the roughly equal split of the vote between Yes […]

New (Late) Boys On The Block Also Say It Is Close

The excitement generated by the narrowing of the No lead in the polls has unsurprisingly persuaded new media organisations to enter the polling fray. On Friday The Guardian commissioned its first poll of voting intentions in the referendum. Today its stablemate, The Observer, has done the same. That paper regularly publishes Westminster voting intention polls […]

Poll of Polls: 12 September Version 2

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, one by Survation, one by YouGov, one by Panelbase  and one by Opinium,  The polls were conducted between 9 and 12 September. The following new […]

Poll of Polls: 12 September Version 1

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by ICM, two by Survation, one by YouGov  and one by Opinium,  The polls were conducted between 5 and 12 September. The following new polls have been […]

ICM Put Yes Ahead – Perhaps

ICM returns today to using the internet for its polling, this time for the Sunday Telegraph. Much of the interviewing for this latest poll in fact happened on the same days as that for the company’s poll in Saturday’s Guardian. However, this poll is a smaller exercise than those the company has been undertaking regularly […]

Survation Phone Poll Gets Much The Same Result Too

Survation have this afternoon released the result of a poll it has conducted for the Better Together campaign. Just as yesterday ICM released the results of a poll that had been conducted by phone rather than, as the company had done previously, over the internet, so also today’s poll is a phone poll from a […]

Tracking the Polls: Rapid Movement to Yes, but is it Enough?

Since the YouGov/Sunday Times poll last Sunday, September 7th, reported a narrow Yes lead and prompted the current crisis reaction from both political parties and news organisations, the polls have been very consistent. They have ranged from the Survation poll on September 9th at 47% for Yes to the ICM poll on September 11th at […]

Poll of Polls: 11 September Updated

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by YouGov, one by ICM, one  by Survation, one by TNS BMRB  and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 27 August and  11 September. The […]

Poll of Polls: 11 September

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on three polls by YouGov, one  by Survation, one by TNS BMRB  and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 27 August and  11 September. The most recent poll […]

Survation Show No Change Too!

The polling mystery deepens. Last Sunday YouGov reported that they had identified a swing to Yes for the third poll in a row, while on the very same day Panelbase indicated that nothing had changed at all. Then on Tuesday TNS BMRB agreed with YouGov that there had been a substantial swing to Yes – […]

Poll of Polls: 9 September

The graph below shows What Scotland Thinks’ latest Poll of Polls and how it has evolved over time. The latest Poll of Polls is based on two polls by YouGov,  two  by Survation, one by TNS BMRB  and one by Panelbase,  The polls were conducted between 26 August and  9 September.

TNS Now Say It Is A Dead Heat

Although both of the polls published on Sunday, one from YouGov and one from Panelbase, suggested that the referendum race was too close to call, they painted a very different picture when it came to how far things had changed. Whereas YouGov were reporting a third poll in a row to register an increase in […]