Polls Swing High, Polls Swing Low

One indication of the dominance of the SNP in the Scottish political firmament these days is that, in what currently is otherwise a climate of relatively infrequent political polling north of the border, no less than four polls have been published during the run-up to the nationalists’ spring conference in Aberdeen this weekend. Two of […]

The Legacy of IndyRef1 and the Implications for IndyRef2: New Scottish Social Attitudes Report

The focus of much opinion polling is on the short-term. Has support for this party or that party gone up or down since last month? Which leader’s popularity is increasing, whose is on the wane? Is there any evidence of swing towards or away from independence since the last time the question was asked? As […]

Does Scotland Want a Second Independence Referendum?

The Prime Minister comes north tomorrow to address Scottish Conservatives at their spring conference. She does so on the back of reports that the UK government is beginning to get concerned that Nicola Sturgeon might opt to pull the trigger on a second referendum, an expectation since heightened by a speech by the First Minister […]

On Sampling Error

Much excitement was caused this week by a poll from BMG Research for The Herald which was reported by the newspaper under the headline ‘Support for independence surges on hard Brexit vow’. There was then even more of a flutter when in an interview for UK Business Insider I suggested that the three-point increase in […]

YouGov Mark St Andrew’s Day with Poll on Independence (and more)

Today is, of course, St Andrew’s Day and the deadline for responses to the SNP’s ‘National Survey’ on how Scotland should be governed. To mark the occasion, The Times commissioned a poll from YouGov on attitudes towards Brexit and indyef2 together with Holyrood vote intentions. Nicola Sturgeon must be wishing that it had not bothered. […]

Brexit Bounce Still Appears Elusive

Further evidence has emerged this week that the UK-wide decision to leave the EU has not significantly altered the balance of opinion on attitudes towards independence after all. Two polls, from Ipsos MORI (for STV News), the other from TNS (not for any particular client) both suggest that there is still a small majority in […]

Has Brexit Not Cleared The Path To Indyef2 After All?

Summer is coming to an end. The streets of Edinburgh are about to be populated by politicians and their acolytes rather than festival goers. Next week the SNP announce their legislative programme for the coming year. And today the nationalists are finally getting around to launching their long-promised ‘summer offensive’ on independence. In the meantime, […]

What Difference did the Referendum make to Scotland’s Constitutional Debate?

Today MSPs pack their bags and prepare to campaign (or retire). Tomorrow will mark the day that if a majority had voted Yes in the independence referendum, Scotland would, according to the SNP’s proposed timetable, have become an independent country. It is thus an opportune moment to take a look at the state of Scotland’s […]

Survation on Income Tax, UKIP and IndyRef2

A new poll by Survation that was reported in the Daily Record both yesterday and today has three findings of note. First, although the principle of increasing income tax by a penny in the pound (as proposed by both Labour and the Liberal Democrats) appears to be relatively popular, there is little sign so far […]

Three Key Pointers from Ipsos MORI

Today’s latest poll, conducted by Ipsos MORI for STV news, addresses three of the key questions about the future of Scottish politics – the race for second place at Holyrood, the debate about whether the Scottish Parliament should be attempting its new income tax powers in the near future, and the impact that a UK […]

Some Added Spice? TNS BMRB and YouGov Polls

Just in case anyone was concerned that May’s Scottish Parliament election might prove to be a rather dull affair as the SNP marched to a seemingly inevitable second overall majority, two polls, one released by TNS BMRB yesterday and one by YouGov published in today’s Times, have added some spice to the campaign. Not that […]